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FIFA’s world rankings are intended to be at a glance, measure of national teams standing in the world game,listing all 208 member associations in order of strength, but the monthly updates often create as much confusion and controversy as clarity.
African football pundits woke up to a disbelief when Kenya rose thirteen places in the latest FIFA Rankings released Wednesday last week, shooting to 95th spot in the world with 339 points from the previous 108, something that local analysts see as a foul game from FIFA, cheating a minority.
Ignorant football lovers are happy with this, but a keen observer is baffled when a spot check and the word on the streets by ghetto radio revealed some questions and many more that seem to dominate conversations whenever the rankings are discussed locally inregards to Kenya’s case.
“Does taking a national team to watch the world cup help in the rise of rankings? Asked a local football fan in Ziwani grounds Nairobi” “How can we (Kenya) have climbed places without playing? Thought another”, “Why didn’t nation Y move up a place or two after winning? I thought” and “Are we really better than Ethiopia who played in the past African cup of nations and lost narrowly in a controversial match against Nigeria, that would have seen them to the world cup in Brazil?, Questioned former footballer Jurgen Njoroge.”
In October 2012, FIFA released a press circular defining what is considered to be an international “A” match and for the purposes of the ranking, FIFA defines an international “A” match as a match between two FIFA members for which both members field their first representative team (“A” team).
The calculations used to decide the best to worst teams currently playing at international level have been revised in recent years and , though still complicated, allow any football fan to figure out who is better, and who is best following the month’s international fixtures.
The FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking is based on a list of all international “A” matches that are recognized by FIFA which include matches played as part of FIFA World Cup , FIFA World Cup qualifiers, FIFA Confederations Cup , continental final tournaments, continental qualifying competitions and international friendly matches.
In Kenya’s case, when was the last time we played a match falling under the above category prior to the release of the notice which excited a few ignorant football fans while embarrassing the African continent for reaping where they did not sow?
The basic logic of these calculations according to FIFA is: any team that does well in world football wins points which enable it to climb the world ranking.
The most baffling question among Kenyan keen observes is, has Harambee stars been wining matches?, how many over the past 12 months?
From 6th January 2013, Kenya has played 12 matches up to date, tying 4 of those, losing 4 and won the rest.
A team’s total number of points over a four-year period is determined by adding:
• The average number of points gained from matches during the past 12 months and the average number of points gained from matches older than 12 months (depreciates yearly).
How many games has Kenya’s Harambee stars played in the last 24 months falling under the international A category? How many did the team win?lose? draw?
Calculation of points for a single match
The number of points that can be won in a match depends on the following factors:
• Was the match won or drawn? (M)
• How important was the match (ranging from a friendly match to a FIFA World Cup™ match)? (I)
• How strong was the opposing team in terms of ranking position and the confederation to which they belong? (T and C)
These factors are brought together in the following formula to ascertain the total number of points (P).
P = M x I x T x C
The following criteria apply to the calculation of points:
M: Points for match result
Teams gain 3 points for a victory, 1 point for a draw and 0 points for a defeat. In a penalty shoot-out, the winning team gains 2 points and the losing team gains 1 point.
I: Importance of match
Friendly match (including small competitions): I= 1.0
FIFA World Cup™ qualifier or confederation-level qualifier: I = 2.5
Confederation-level final competition or FIFA Confederations Cup: I = 3.0
FIFA World Cup™ final competition: I = 4.0
T: Strength of opposing team
The strength of the opponents is based on the formula: 200 – the ranking position of the opponents
As an exception to this formula, the team at the top of the ranking is always assigned the value 200 and the teams ranked 150th and below are assigned a minimum value of 50.
The ranking position is taken from the opponents’ ranking in the most recently published FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking, for example, a match against Brazil in October 2011 would give 193 points, with the nation ranked seventh in the world.
The team in top spot count for 200 points while any nation ranked 150th or below are given the value of 50. For the purposes of the final calculation, the strength of an opponent is divided by 100.
C: Strength of confederation
When calculating matches between teams from different confederations, the mean value of the confederations to which the two competing teams belong is used.
The strength of a confederation is calculated on the basis of the number of victories by that confederation at the last three FIFA World Cup™ competitions with their values are as follows:
UEFA/CONMEBOL 1.00 CONCACAF 0.88
AFC/CAF 0.86 OFC 0.85
Final calculation
To determine the final amount of points gained from a match, all of the above factors are multiplied.
Example, Scotland gained 395 points from its draw with Czech Republic in September 2011. They accumulated one points for the result (M), 2.5 for the match importance (I), 158 from Czech Republic 42nd placing in the FIFA ranking (T) and one point from the confederation strength (C).
The final score is then added into a nation’s average for the past 12 months. Scotland’s 12 month average stands at 296.3, having played 10 games.
06 Jan 2013 Kenya v Burundi L 1-0 International
23 Mar 2013 Nigeria v Kenya D 1-1 FIFA World Cup
05 Jun 2013 Kenya v Nigeria L 0-1 FIFA World Cup
12 Jun 2013 Malawi v Kenya D 2-2 FIFA World Cup
07 Jul 2013 Kenya v Lesotho D 2-2 International
09 Jul 2013 Kenya v Swaziland W 2-0 International
11 Jul 2013 Kenya v Botswana L 2-1 International
06 Sep 2013 Kenya v Namibia W 1-0 FIFA World Cup
08 Sep 2013 Kenya v Namibia W 1-0 FIFA World Cup
18 May 2014 Kenya v Comoros W 1-0 African Nations Cup
30 May 2014 Comoros v Kenya D 1-1 African Nations Cup
20 Jul 2014 Lesotho v Kenya L 1-0 African Nations Cup
Author: Shadrack Andenga Odinga/source